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Days before a devastating magnitude 7.9 earthquake When an earthquake hit Myanmar, destroying structures and claiming numerous lives, a group of Chinese seismologists released a report cautioning about the increased likelihood of similar catastrophes occurring in the region.
Given that the death toll has likely surpassed 3,000, seismologists warn that the earthquake on March 28 isn’t expected to be an isolated event; instead, their studies suggest that there’s presently a heightened likelihood of further seismic activity. catastrophic earthquakes throughout China and nearby areas.
The timing of this study, which connects seismic activity to variations in the Earth’s rotational speed, has ignited significant controversy regarding whether global tectonic strain fields might be transitioning into a new phase. dangerous new phase .
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The peer-reviewed study, led by senior engineer Zhu Hongbin with the Beijing Earthquake Agency, was published on March 20 in the Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, an academic publication run by the China Earthquake Administration.
They examined approximately 150 years of seismic records—from 1879 up until today—to pinpoint six significant events. earthquake "Active phases" within China and nearby areas.
Every era aligns with alterations in the Earth’s rotational velocity—as evidenced by variations in the length of a day (LOD)—and related adjustments in tectonic stresses, as observed by Zhu and his team.
A period of heightened activity between 1897 and 1912 saw 12 significant earthquakes occurring along the Pamir-Baikal seismic belt in East Asia.
The following stages moved progressively clockwise: to the northeast part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1920 to 1934, then to its southeast fringe between 1946 and 1957, followed by Yunnan and North China during 1970–1976, and finally reaching the Bayan Har block on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau from 2001 to 2015.
The present stage, which is the sixth, focuses on the outskirts of the Bayan Har block. Researchers have warned that stress fields might now shift towards the northeastern direction. increasing the risk In Sichuan, Yunnan, and the Himalayan region.
Zhu's team noted that the area might now be transitioning into an early stage of heightened seismic activity.
Since 1867, variations in Earth's length of day have gone through four significant cycles of speeding up and slowing down, along with 16 briefer stages.
Slowing down periods enhance north-south tectonic pressures, which have historically led to massive earthquakes in the Pamir-Baikal region. On the other hand, speeding up stages increase northeast-oriented stress, causing instability at the edges of the Tibetan Plateau.
The research emphasizes growing stress in the fixed sections of the Longmenshan Fault in southwestern China, where the earthquake occurred. 2008 Sichuan earthquake , along with the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, where GPS data indicates an acceleration in India's northern movement.
The earthquake in Myanmar struck during a period when changes in length-of-day were transitioning, coincidentally landing in one of the forecasted zones with elevated risk because of increased northeastern-directed pressure.
Satellite information indicates a 500 km (310 miles) long fracture zone stretching down to Thailand , with propulsion systems aligned with these forces.
Just 280 kilometers (174 miles) away from the southeastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau, the earthquake in Myanmar has increased attention on Zhu's research.
However, even though the tremor matches the expected northeast stress shift, critics contend that global seismic activity in 2025 still falls short of historical norms.
"There’s no indication that the Earth has gone into an increased seismic activity phase,” Senior Researcher Gao Mengtan from the China Earthquake Administration stated to official media outlets on Monday.
"The seismic activity this year has been relatively subdued compared to previous periods," he stated.
The Myanmar The disaster was succeeded by a magnitude 7.3 earthquake located 100 kilometers (62 miles) northeast of Tonga on March 30; however, thankfully, this did not pose a tsunami threat to nearby coastlines. Additionally, minor seismic activities shook areas like Tibet, Xinjiang, and Guangdong recently, causing unease among local inhabitants.
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The article initially appeared on the South ChinaMorning Post (www.scmp.com), which is the premier source for news coverage of China andAsia.
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